San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- Blake WesleyAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints32
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–116
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound118–116
- Q40.0Deni Avdija misses shot118–116
- Q42.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2118–116
- Q42.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2117–116
- Q42.1Jerami Grant shooting foul116–116
- Q46.1Jabari Walker enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe116–116
- Q46.1Spurs Full timeout116–116
- Q46.1Jerami Grant makes driving layup116–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:07Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)SA 112 – 112 POR · POR 15% → 49% +34POR 15% → 49%+34 pts
- Q434.1Anfernee Simons makes driving layupSA 114 – 114 POR · POR 16% → 49% +33POR 16% → 49%+33 pts
- Q412.0Devin Vassell makes 13-foot two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 116 – 114 POR · SA 51% → 95% +44SA 51% → 95%+44 pts
- Q46.1Jerami Grant makes driving layupSA 116 – 116 POR · POR 1% → 50% +48POR 1% → 50%+48 pts
- Q42.1Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2SA 117 – 116 POR · SA 50% → 97% +47SA 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML SA -155 / POR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -4.5
- SA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- SA: Elo 67.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -140
- POR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.0 – 111.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −36 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −17, Robert Williams III −14 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +127 Elo | SA 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 106.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −9.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 104.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−36 Elo- Deandre Ayton injury/illness−17 Elo
- Robert Williams III return to competition reconditioning−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–13 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–1 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.