Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints23
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds13
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–117
- Q46.1shot clock turnover104–117
- Q430.1Rob Dillingham lost ball turnover (Garrison Mathews steals)104–117
- Q438.2shot clock turnover104–117
- Q41:03Terrence Shannon Jr. makes layup (Rob Dillingham assists)104–117
- Q41:06Keaton Wallace bad pass (PJ Dozier steals)102–117
- Q41:24Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2102–117
- Q41:24David Roddy enters the game for Larry Nance Jr.101–117
- Q41:24Vit Krejci enters the game for De'Andre Hunter101–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:42Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Minott assists)MIN 79 – 76 ATL · MIN 54% → 65% +11MIN 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q411:04Larry Nance Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)MIN 87 – 87 ATL · ATL 34% → 46% +13ATL 34% → 46%+13 pts
- Q410:07Garrison Mathews makes 22-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)MIN 89 – 91 ATL · ATL 42% → 56% +14ATL 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q48:57Garrison Mathews makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)MIN 89 – 95 ATL · ATL 61% → 74% +13ATL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q48:35Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 92 – 95 ATL · MIN 25% → 39% +13MIN 25% → 39%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML MIN -150 / ATL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- ATL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 113.5 – 110.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −8 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −8 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 119.628th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −3.221st of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 109.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 112.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 7–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−8 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic left leg injury−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–16 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.