Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–110
- Q42.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound102–110
- Q45.1Clint Capela misses free throw 2 of 2102–110
- Q45.1Hawks offensive team rebound102–110
- Q45.1Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2102–110
- Q45.1Brook Lopez shooting foul102–110
- Q49.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2102–110
- Q49.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2102–109
- Q49.1Bogdan Bogdanovic personal foul102–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q315.0Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointerATL 81 – 82 MIL · MIL 47% → 59% +12MIL 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q411:32Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)ATL 83 – 85 MIL · MIL 51% → 63% +12MIL 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q47:32De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 90 – 89 MIL · ATL 36% → 51% +15ATL 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q46:23Andre Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ATL 90 – 94 MIL · MIL 59% → 75% +15MIL 59% → 75%+15 pts
- Q44:39Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk (Khris Middleton assists)ATL 95 – 98 MIL · MIL 60% → 72% +12MIL 60% → 72%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML ATL +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.0 – 118.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +22 | +40 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 113.413th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 112.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 112.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.