Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints19
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–103
- Q44.1Gary Payton II defensive rebound113–103
- Q49.1Naz Reid misses 24-foot three point jumper113–103
- Q413.0shot clock turnover113–103
- Q437.1Gary Payton II defensive rebound113–103
- Q438.1Donte DiVincenzo misses tip shot113–103
- Q438.1Donte DiVincenzo offensive rebound113–103
- Q440.1Donte DiVincenzo misses driving floating jump shot113–103
- Q448.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2113–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)GS 88 – 87 MIN · MIN 32% → 48% +17MIN 32% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:45Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointerGS 90 – 90 MIN · MIN 36% → 54% +18MIN 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q44:55Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot driving dunkGS 94 – 92 MIN · GS 47% → 59% +13GS 47% → 59%+13 pts
- Q44:19Brandin Podziemski makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)GS 96 – 93 MIN · GS 54% → 67% +13GS 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q43:38Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointerGS 99 – 94 MIN · GS 62% → 81% +19GS 62% → 81%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML GS +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- GS +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.5 – 111.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −19 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +60 Elo | MIN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 106.64th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 109.520th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 106.45th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.322nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 8–515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–11 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.