Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints21
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds7
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints21
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–144
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)93–144
- Q40.0Brandin Podziemski makes two point shot93–144
- Q412.1shot clock turnover91–144
- Q436.0Zach Edey defensive rebound91–144
- Q439.0Kyle Anderson misses 27-foot three point jumper91–144
- Q443.1Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound91–144
- Q446.0Jonathan Kuminga misses free throw 2 of 291–144
- Q446.0Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 1 of 291–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:51Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Zach Edey assists)GS 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 53% → 59% +6MEM 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q111:24Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)GS 0 – 6 MEM · MEM 59% → 65% +6MEM 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q19:37Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)GS 2 – 11 MEM · MEM 66% → 71% +6MEM 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:57Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 5 – 13 MEM · GS 25% → 30% +5GS 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q14:50Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)GS 10 – 20 MEM · GS 21% → 26% +5GS 21% → 26%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML GS +105 / MEM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.8 pts
- MEM: Elo 66.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -114
- GS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.5 – 120.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +96 | GS: Usual rotation · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +116 Elo | MEM 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +8.44th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 106.35th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.7 | Pace | 107.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 12–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–10 | 18–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 13–7 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.