Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints29
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game143–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter143–133
- Q47.1shot clock turnover143–133
- Q429.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound143–133
- Q433.0Brandin Podziemski misses driving floating jump shot143–133
- Q443.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound143–133
- Q444.1Klay Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2143–133
- Q444.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Luka Doncic143–133
- Q444.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for P.J. Washington143–133
- Q444.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Kyrie Irving143–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:37Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)DAL 83 – 80 GS · GS 32% → 41% +9GS 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q310:19Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 86 – 80 GS · DAL 59% → 68% +9DAL 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q411:35Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)DAL 114 – 110 GS · GS 23% → 34% +11GS 23% → 34%+11 pts
- Q47:57Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 125 – 120 GS · GS 15% → 26% +11GS 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q42:49Andrew Wiggins makes 22-foot three point shot (Lindy Waters III assists)DAL 138 – 133 GS · GS 4% → 14% +10GS 4% → 14%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- GS -1.5
- ML DAL -110 / GS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- GS 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- GS: Elo 38.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.5 – 115.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +7 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +80 Elo | DAL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 113.114th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 108.46th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 110.716th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 106.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 7–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–10 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.