Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds10
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints40
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q41.0Marcus Smart makes 29-foot three pointer (Desmond Bane assists)110–116
- Q45.0Rui Hachimura makes 1-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)107–116
- Q48.1LeBron James defensive rebound107–114
- Q412.1Ja Morant misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot107–114
- Q415.2Anthony Davis bad pass (Ja Morant steals)107–114
- Q418.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 1107–114
- Q418.1Austin Reaves shooting foul106–114
- Q418.1Desmond Bane makes 6-foot two point shot106–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:01Gabe Vincent makes 27-foot three point shotMEM 16 – 24 LAL · LAL 58% → 64% +7LAL 58% → 64%+7 pts
- Q117.0LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)MEM 20 – 30 LAL · LAL 63% → 69% +7LAL 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q28:24Ja Morant makes 24-foot three point shot (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 29 – 34 LAL · MEM 34% → 41% +7MEM 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q27:37Austin Reaves makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Cam Reddish assists)MEM 29 – 40 LAL · LAL 67% → 73% +7LAL 67% → 73%+7 pts
- Q31.0Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 77 – 86 LAL · MEM 12% → 19% +7MEM 12% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML MEM -130 / LAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5.5
- MEM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 70.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -119
- LAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 120.0 – 117.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +98 | −41 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +147 Elo | MEM 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.6 | Points scored | 111.118th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 115.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.0 | Margin | −3.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 110.816th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.4 | Defense rating | 114.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–8 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–6 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–4 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.