Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists16
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds13
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints42
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game126–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime126–133
- OT12.2Spurs defensive team rebound126–133
- OT14.1Trae Young misses driving layup126–133
- OT18.2Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Dyson Daniels126–133
- OT18.2Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Harrison Barnes126–133
- OT18.2Hawks Full timeout126–133
- OT19.1Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointer126–133
- OT38.0Chris Paul enters the game for Jeremy Sochan126–130
- OT38.0Spurs Full timeout126–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:26Trae Young makes 30-foot three pointerATL 115 – 112 SA · ATL 50% → 82% +32ATL 50% → 82%+32 pts
- Q41:14Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)ATL 115 – 115 SA · SA 16% → 50% +34SA 16% → 50%+34 pts
- Q41:01Jalen Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 118 – 115 SA · ATL 50% → 86% +36ATL 50% → 86%+36 pts
- Q456.1Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointerATL 118 – 118 SA · SA 13% → 50% +37SA 13% → 50%+37 pts
- Q411.0De'Andre Hunter makes 3-foot dunk (Larry Nance Jr. assists)ATL 120 – 120 SA · ATL 5% → 50% +45ATL 5% → 50%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML ATL -110 / SA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 49.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.0 – 117.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +24 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 110.920th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 112.914th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −2.017th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.317th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.5 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–16 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.