Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints23
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists9
- Santi AldamaRebounds6
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints26
- Jalen JohnsonAssists8
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–112
- Q422.1Dominick Barlow makes 22-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)128–112
- Q433.0David Roddy defensive rebound128–109
- Q435.1Zach Edey misses free throw 1 of 1128–109
- Q435.1Dominick Barlow shooting foul128–109
- Q435.1Zach Edey makes layup128–109
- Q453.2Vit Krejci makes free throw 2 of 2126–109
- Q453.2Vit Krejci makes free throw 1 of 2126–108
- Q453.2Cam Spencer personal foul126–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:30Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 5 – 2 ATL · MEM 54% → 60% +6MEM 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:04Zaccharie Risacher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)MEM 16 – 14 ATL · ATL 35% → 42% +6ATL 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q15:57Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 21 – 14 ATL · MEM 63% → 69% +6MEM 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q15:43Dyson Daniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)MEM 21 – 17 ATL · ATL 31% → 37% +6ATL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q15:29Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)MEM 24 – 17 ATL · MEM 63% → 69% +6MEM 63% → 69%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -130 / ATL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 67.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.5 – 116.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | −36 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +125 Elo | MEM 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.9 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.0 | Margin | −2.721st of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 109.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Pace | 105.63rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–9 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–7 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.