Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints27
- RJ BarrettAssists10
- RJ BarrettRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–155
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–155
- Q40.0Raptors offensive team rebound126–155
- Q40.0Garrett Temple misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot126–155
- Q47.0
shot clock turnover126–155 - Q431.1A.J. Lawson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ulrich Chomche assists)126–155
- Q438.0Ulrich Chomche offensive rebound123–155
- Q440.0Garrett Temple misses driving floating jump shot123–155
- Q448.2A.J. Lawson defensive rebound123–155
- Q450.2Zach Edey misses free throw 2 of 2123–155
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:22Jaylen Wells makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)TOR 56 – 60 MEM · MEM 78% → 83% +6MEM 78% → 83%+6 pts
- Q22:44Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 66 – 66 MEM · TOR 19% → 26% +6TOR 19% → 26%+6 pts
- Q22:16Kelly Olynyk makes finger roll layup (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 68 – 68 MEM · TOR 21% → 26% +4TOR 21% → 26%+4 pts
- Q22:02Brandon Clarke makes tip shotTOR 68 – 70 MEM · MEM 74% → 79% +4MEM 74% → 79%+4 pts
- Q238.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)TOR 70 – 78 MEM · MEM 84% → 89% +5MEM 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -10.5
- ML TOR +400 / MEM -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -10.5
- MEM 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 84.1%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 115.5 – 126.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +95 | TOR: Usual rotation · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +289 Elo | MEM 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 122.71st of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +9.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 114.46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 105.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 107.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 13–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–10 | 20–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 15–8 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.