LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints29
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds19
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points24
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q43.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound114–110
- Q43.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot114–110
- Q45.1Grizzlies Full timeout114–110
- Q45.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q45.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2113–110
- Q45.1Desmond Bane personal take foul112–110
- Q415.1Santi Aldama kicked ball violation112–110
- Q418.1Amir Coffey enters the game for Ivica Zubac112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:10James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 106 – 103 MEM · LAC 45% → 69% +24LAC 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q41:24Ja Morant makes two point shotLAC 108 – 107 MEM · MEM 20% → 41% +21MEM 20% → 41%+21 pts
- Q439.1Ivica Zubac makes dunk (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 110 – 108 MEM · LAC 48% → 80% +32LAC 48% → 80%+32 pts
- Q434.1Ja Morant makes free throw 2 of 2LAC 110 – 110 MEM · MEM 33% → 52% +19MEM 33% → 52%+19 pts
- Q425.1Norman Powell makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)LAC 112 – 110 MEM · LAC 48% → 86% +38LAC 48% → 86%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -6.5
- ML LAC +200 / MEM -240
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 66.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -212
- LAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +101 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +119 Elo | MEM 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 112.915th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +10.23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 115.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 105.54th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.2 | Pace | 107.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 13th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 13–34th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–11 | 20–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.