Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints20
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds7
Clippers- James HardenPoints41
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–144
- Q410.2shot clock turnover107–144
- Q433.1Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound107–144
- Q436.1Johnny Juzang misses 22-foot three point jumper107–144
- Q454.1Bones Hyland out of bounds bad pass turnover107–144
- Q41:00Kevin Porter Jr. offensive rebound107–144
- Q41:04Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot107–144
- Q41:14Amir Coffey defensive rebound107–144
- Q41:18Brice Sensabaugh misses running pullup jump shot107–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Ivica Zubac makes 14-foot two point shot (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 0 – 2 LAC · LAC 72% → 76% +3LAC 72% → 76%+3 pts
- Q110:45Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 3 – 4 LAC · UTAH 21% → 26% +5UTAH 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q110:20Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)UTAH 3 – 7 LAC · LAC 74% → 79% +5LAC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:38Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 3 – 10 LAC · LAC 79% → 83% +4LAC 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q17:35James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 5 – 17 LAC · LAC 86% → 89% +3LAC 86% → 89%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML UTAH +250 / LAC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 75.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -263
- UTAH +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.0 – 114.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | −25 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +200 Elo | LAC 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 108.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 107.85th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 108.824th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 108.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 9–616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–14 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 9–14 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.