Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Mason PlumleeRebounds9
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints23
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- John CollinsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–126
- Q43.2John Collins personal take foul134–126
- Q45.0John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)134–126
- Q421.2Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)134–123
- Q438.1Royce O'Neale defensive rebound131–123
- Q442.1Keyonte George misses running pullup jump shot131–123
- Q447.0Keyonte George defensive rebound131–123
- Q448.1Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot131–123
- Q41:10Grayson Allen defensive rebound131–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:06Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 17 – 22 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 41% +8UTAH 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q33:04Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)PHX 104 – 97 UTAH · PHX 75% → 83% +8PHX 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q324.0Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)PHX 109 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 25% +9UTAH 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q32.1Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 112 – 105 UTAH · PHX 75% → 84% +9PHX 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q410:54Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 115 – 107 UTAH · PHX 79% → 87% +8PHX 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML PHX -275 / UTAH +225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 64.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- PHX -238
- UTAH +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 120.0 – 113.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −18 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +104 Elo | PHX 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 118.727th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −9.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 108.025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 117.429th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 2–929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–15 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | — |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–0 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.