LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kevin Porter Jr.Points16
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints20
- Russell WestbrookAssists5
- DeAndre JordanRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–120
- Q46.1shot clock turnover98–120
- Q430.1Bones Hyland makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kai Jones assists)98–120
- Q434.0Hunter Tyson lost ball turnover (Kai Jones steals)95–120
- Q438.1Hunter Tyson defensive rebound95–120
- Q440.2Bones Hyland misses two point shot95–120
- Q456.0Hunter Tyson makes free throw 2 of 295–120
- Q456.0Hunter Tyson makes free throw 1 of 295–119
- Q456.0Kai Jones shooting foul95–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:11Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point shot (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 52 – 50 DEN · LAC 32% → 41% +9LAC 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q39:33Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 55 – 50 DEN · LAC 41% → 50% +9LAC 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q38:53Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three pointer (Michael Porter Jr. assists)LAC 55 – 55 DEN · DEN 56% → 65% +9DEN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:33Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 58 – 55 DEN · LAC 35% → 45% +9LAC 35% → 45%+9 pts
- Q37:15Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Gordon assists)LAC 58 – 62 DEN · DEN 67% → 76% +8DEN 67% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML LAC +240 / DEN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 62.9%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -253
- LAC +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.0 – 117.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +25 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +92 Elo | DEN 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 118.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 116.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.913th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 114.46th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–9 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–2 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.