LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints28
- James HardenAssists3
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Mavericks- Quentin GrimesPoints20
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–113
- Q411.1shot clock turnover97–113
- Q435.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 297–113
- Q435.1Quentin Grimes enters the game for Klay Thompson96–113
- Q435.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie96–113
- Q435.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for P.J. Washington96–113
- Q435.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Kyrie Irving96–113
- Q435.1Jazian Gortman enters the game for Dereck Lively II96–113
- Q435.1Clippers offensive team rebound96–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:56Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)LAC 25 – 28 DAL · DAL 58% → 65% +7DAL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q35:44Naji Marshall makes 25-foot three pointer (Daniel Gafford assists)LAC 56 – 64 DAL · DAL 72% → 80% +8DAL 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q34:25Kris Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 59 – 65 DAL · LAC 17% → 25% +8LAC 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q410:15Quentin Grimes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)LAC 71 – 81 DAL · DAL 81% → 89% +8DAL 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q44:22Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)LAC 94 – 103 DAL · DAL 87% → 95% +8DAL 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML LAC +135 / DAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -145
- LAC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.0 – 112.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −51 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +28 Elo | DAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.9 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 112.713th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +5.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 116.24th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 110.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–10 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–5 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 96 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked LAC 52%Miss
- Apr 21DAL 97 @ LAC 109PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Miss
- Dec 20LAC 120 @ DAL 111Picked LAC 55%Hit