LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints29
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints22
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–95
- Q418.1shot clock turnover118–95
- Q441.1Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound118–95
- Q444.1Kessler Edwards misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot118–95
- Q452.0shot clock turnover118–95
- Q41:13Mo Bamba defensive rebound118–95
- Q41:16Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 22-foot three point jumper118–95
- Q41:22Kessler Edwards defensive rebound118–95
- Q41:25Kevin Porter Jr. misses driving layup118–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q219.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 50 – 49 DAL · LAC 43% → 51% +9LAC 43% → 51%+9 pts
- Q311:45Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)LAC 50 – 52 DAL · DAL 49% → 57% +9DAL 49% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:11Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Quentin Grimes assists)LAC 59 – 59 DAL · DAL 42% → 51% +9DAL 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q36:37Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 68 – 63 DAL · LAC 55% → 65% +10LAC 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q33:59Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 78 – 69 DAL · LAC 70% → 78% +9LAC 70% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML LAC +100 / DAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- LAC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 107.5 – 109.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | −100 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +57 Elo | DAL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 112.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +6.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 117.14th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 8–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–10 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–5 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 96 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked LAC 52%Miss
- Apr 21DAL 97 @ LAC 109PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Miss
- Dec 20LAC 120 @ DAL 111Picked LAC 55%Hit
- Nov 25DAL 88 @ LAC 107Picked DAL 57%Miss