Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–120
- Q47.0shot clock turnover110–120
- Q429.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound110–120
- Q432.2Bam Adebayo misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot110–120
- Q437.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2110–120
- Q437.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2110–119
- Q437.1Bam Adebayo personal foul110–118
- Q443.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound110–118
- Q446.1Tyler Herro misses two point shot110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:05Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)MIA 91 – 98 ATL · ATL 69% → 81% +12ATL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q47:41Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 94 – 98 ATL · MIA 18% → 31% +12MIA 18% → 31%+12 pts
- Q46:40De'Andre Hunter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)MIA 96 – 101 ATL · ATL 61% → 75% +15ATL 61% → 75%+15 pts
- Q44:07Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 105 – 106 ATL · MIA 24% → 43% +19MIA 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q43:28Bam Adebayo makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 107 – 108 ATL · MIA 28% → 43% +14MIA 28% → 43%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -0.5
- ML MIA -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.0 – 113.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +9 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Bogdan Bogdanovic −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +10 Elo | ATL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 119.527th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −2.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 110.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 9–718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−24 Elo- Jimmy Butler III return to competition reconditioning−40 Elo
Hawks
+9 Elo- Bogdan Bogdanovic left leg injury−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–16 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.