Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints33
- Alex CarusoAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds18
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Duncan RobinsonAssists6
- Tyler HerroRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–97
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound104–97
- Q40.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 50-foot three point jumper104–97
- Q41.2Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2104–97
- Q41.2Thunder offensive team rebound103–97
- Q41.2Jalen Williams misses free throw 1 of 2103–97
- Q41.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal take foul103–97
- Q45.1Thunder Full timeout103–97
- Q45.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound103–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:21Dru Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)OKC 58 – 56 MIA · MIA 34% → 44% +9MIA 34% → 44%+9 pts
- Q37:49Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)OKC 58 – 59 MIA · MIA 44% → 53% +10MIA 44% → 53%+10 pts
- Q37:16Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 61 – 61 MIA · OKC 40% → 50% +10OKC 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q32:02Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 76 – 68 MIA · OKC 68% → 78% +9OKC 68% → 78%+9 pts
- Q43:33Dru Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)OKC 96 – 91 MIA · MIA 6% → 17% +11MIA 6% → 17%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -1.5
- ML OKC -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -0.5
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- OKC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 109.5 – 108.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1665 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +33 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +16 Elo | OKC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 112.815th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Points allowed | 109.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.9 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.39th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 110.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–11 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.