Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds19
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints21
- Jalen WilliamsAssists3
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–81
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–81
- Q418.0Kenrich Williams makes 27-foot three pointer97–81
- Q431.0Branden Carlson defensive rebound97–78
- Q432.1AJ Johnson misses driving layup97–78
- Q451.1AJ Johnson defensive rebound97–78
- Q454.1Dillon Jones misses 22-foot three point shot97–78
- Q459.0Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound97–78
- Q41:01AJ Johnson misses two point shot97–78
- Q41:20Chris Livingston defensive rebound97–78
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:44Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 54 – 50 OKC · MIL 43% → 52% +9MIL 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q311:25Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 57 – 50 OKC · MIL 52% → 60% +9MIL 52% → 60%+9 pts
- Q311:05Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)MIL 57 – 53 OKC · OKC 39% → 48% +9OKC 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q39:08Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 64 – 53 OKC · MIL 65% → 73% +8MIL 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q35:38Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)MIL 69 – 60 OKC · OKC 21% → 29% +8OKC 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML MIL +170 / OKC -200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -180
- MIL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 110.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +29 | +14 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +133 Elo | OKC 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 115.610th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 103.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +12.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 101.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 15–9 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.