Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints23
- Kentavious Caldwell-PopeAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–99
- Q413.1Jett Howard personal foul105–99
- Q416.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)105–99
- Q425.0Tristan da Silva defensive rebound105–96
- Q430.1Aaron Wiggins misses 7-foot jumper105–96
- Q452.1Luguentz Dort offensive rebound105–96
- Q455.1Jalen Williams misses driving layup105–96
- Q41:17Jett Howard bad pass (Alex Caruso steals)105–96
- Q41:29Alex Caruso enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein105–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:54Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 75 – 68 ORL · OKC 74% → 82% +8OKC 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q31:31Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)OKC 79 – 74 ORL · ORL 15% → 22% +8ORL 15% → 22%+8 pts
- Q49:42Anthony Black makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Moritz Wagner assists)OKC 86 – 83 ORL · ORL 18% → 28% +10ORL 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q49:07Moritz Wagner makes 2-foot driving floating jump shotOKC 88 – 85 ORL · ORL 21% → 28% +7ORL 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q48:57Jalen Williams makes driving layupOKC 90 – 85 ORL · OKC 72% → 79% +8OKC 72% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -260 / ORL +210
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 65.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -224
- ORL +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 107.5 – 101.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −39 | OKC: Usual rotation · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +110 Elo | OKC 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 107.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.2 | Points allowed | 103.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.0 | Margin | +3.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 108.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 104.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 10–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–10 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 13–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–0 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.