Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints35
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists10
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds19
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists18
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game124–125
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime124–125
- OT1.1Ausar Thompson defensive rebound124–125
- OT1.1Tyler Herro misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot124–125
- OT6.1Cade Cunningham personal foul124–125
- OT6.1Jimmy Butler offensive rebound124–125
- OT6.2Jimmy Butler misses layup124–125
- OT9.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith124–125
- OT9.1Jalen Duren enters the game for Simone Fontecchio124–125
- OT9.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Ronald Holland II124–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:10Jimmy Butler makes driving layupMIA 111 – 112 DET · MIA 17% → 39% +22MIA 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q45.0Tyler Herro makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 114 – 114 DET · MIA <1% → 51% +51MIA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT1:10Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 122 – 123 DET · DET 24% → 61% +38DET 24% → 61%+38 pts
- OT44.1Jimmy Butler makes two point shotMIA 124 – 123 DET · MIA 35% → 68% +33MIA 35% → 68%+33 pts
- OT37.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layupMIA 124 – 125 DET · DET 31% → 66% +35DET 31% → 66%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -190 / DET +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 69.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -170
- DET +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.5 – 107.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | 0 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +141 Elo | MIA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 110.121st of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 113.417th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −3.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 112.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–12 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.