Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Ronald Holland IIPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Cade CunninghamRebounds8
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints27
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–123
- Q422.0Pistons defensive team rebound99–123
- Q425.1Drew Peterson misses 24-foot three point jumper99–123
- Q443.1Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)99–123
- Q457.0JD Davison makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)96–123
- Q459.0Jordan Walsh offensive rebound96–120
- Q41:01Xavier Tillman misses 25-foot three point jumper96–120
- Q41:26Ronald Holland II makes dunk (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)96–120
- Q41:30Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound94–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Kristaps Porzingis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DET 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q16:21Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)DET 6 – 8 BOS · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q15:24Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Malik Beasley assists)DET 10 – 8 BOS · DET 18% → 21% +3DET 18% → 21%+3 pts
- Q15:09Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)DET 10 – 11 BOS · BOS 79% → 83% +5BOS 79% → 83%+5 pts
- Q13:08Kristaps Porzingis makes 15-foot two point shot (Payton Pritchard assists)DET 14 – 15 BOS · BOS 79% → 83% +3BOS 79% → 83%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML DET +475 / BOS -750
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 82.6%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -507
- DET +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −16 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −53 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +271 Elo | BOS 82.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.5 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 110.79th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +9.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 118.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 109.28th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 10–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−16 Elo- Jayson Tatum injury/illness−53 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–12 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–5 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.