Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints20
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints29
- Jalen SuggsAssists2
- Goga BitadzeRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–88
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound89–88
- Q40.1Kel'el Ware enters the game for Duncan Robinson89–88
- Q40.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Terry Rozier89–88
- Q40.1Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac89–88
- Q40.1Tyler Herro makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)89–88
- Q44.2Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith87–88
- Q44.2Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tristan da Silva87–88
- Q44.2Heat Full timeout87–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:09Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 80 – 76 ORL · MIA 55% → 70% +15MIA 55% → 70%+15 pts
- Q43:33Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 85 – 80 ORL · MIA 65% → 83% +18MIA 65% → 83%+18 pts
- Q452.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)MIA 87 – 86 ORL · ORL 6% → 35% +29ORL 6% → 35%+29 pts
- Q44.2Goga Bitadze makes layupMIA 87 – 88 ORL · ORL 9% → 91% +83ORL 9% → 91%+83 pts
- Q40.1Tyler Herro makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 89 – 88 ORL · MIA 0% → 100% +100MIA 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML MIA -105 / ORL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- ORL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 105.0 – 103.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −20 | −56 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +22 Elo | ORL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 107.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 108.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–8 | Road vs home | 12–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−20 Elo- Jimmy Butler III return to competition reconditioning−40 Elo
Magic
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 14–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.