Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints35
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints18
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–108
- Q43.1Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound104–108
- Q46.1Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper104–108
- Q49.2Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)104–108
- Q430.1Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound104–105
- Q434.2Al Horford misses 23-foot three point jumper104–105
- Q440.2Al Horford defensive rebound104–105
- Q443.1Trevelin Queen misses driving layup104–105
- Q459.1Magic Full timeout104–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:27Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 83 – 86 ORL · BOS 35% → 48% +14BOS 35% → 48%+14 pts
- Q45:12Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BOS 93 – 100 ORL · ORL 66% → 81% +15ORL 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:25Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 102 – 105 ORL · BOS 4% → 22% +17BOS 4% → 22%+17 pts
- Q459.1Jaylen Brown makes two point shotBOS 104 – 105 ORL · BOS 16% → 40% +24BOS 16% → 40%+24 pts
- Q49.2Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)BOS 104 – 108 ORL · ORL 81% → >99% +19ORL 81% → >99%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML BOS -385 / ORL +295
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 70.3%, market 75.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -314
- ORL +314 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.5 – 103.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1663 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −60 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +149 Elo | BOS 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 107.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+10.0 | Margin | +3.38th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 108.424th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 105.13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–2 | Road vs home | 11–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–17 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 14–5 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.