Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints36
- Zach LaVineAssists4
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists4
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–108
- Q45.0Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper117–108
- Q46.1Payton Pritchard offensive rebound117–105
- Q48.1Jordan Walsh misses 27-foot three point jumper117–105
- Q419.1Neemias Queta enters the game for Derrick White117–105
- Q419.1Jaden Springer enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis117–105
- Q419.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Jaylen Brown117–105
- Q419.1Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jayson Tatum117–105
- Q419.1shot clock turnover117–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:56Talen Horton-Tucker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 90 – 90 BOS · CHI 19% → 29% +11CHI 19% → 29%+11 pts
- Q48:31Julian Phillips makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 97 – 90 BOS · CHI 49% → 64% +15CHI 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q45:55Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)CHI 99 – 96 BOS · BOS 32% → 49% +17BOS 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q45:02Zach LaVine makes 31-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 104 – 96 BOS · CHI 66% → 81% +15CHI 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q43:39Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 107 – 98 BOS · CHI 79% → 91% +13CHI 79% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML CHI +750 / BOS -1300
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 84.3%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -789
- CHI +789 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 128.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1676 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +46 | CHI: Usual rotation · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +292 Elo | BOS 84.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 88.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +10.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 118.13rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 108.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 11–35th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–13 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 10–12 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.