Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints28
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints21
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–98
- Q41.1Jaden Springer makes free throw 2 of 2112–98
- Q41.1Celtics offensive team rebound111–98
- Q41.1Jaden Springer misses free throw 1 of 2111–98
- Q41.1Marvin Bagley III shooting foul111–98
- Q45.1Jordan Walsh offensive rebound111–98
- Q49.1Xavier Tillman misses 8-foot two point shot111–98
- Q419.1Payton Pritchard offensive rebound111–98
- Q421.1Payton Pritchard misses driving floating jump shot111–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Bilal Coulibaly makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)BOS 6 – 12 WSH · WSH 12% → 16% +4WSH 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q19:31Bilal Coulibaly makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 7 – 15 WSH · WSH 15% → 19% +4WSH 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q19:20Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 10 – 15 WSH · BOS 81% → 85% +4BOS 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q14:17Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 21 – 21 WSH · WSH 8% → 11% +3WSH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q12:44Derrick White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 24 – 21 WSH · BOS 89% → 92% +3BOS 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -17.5
- ML BOS -2000 / WSH +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -15.5
- BOS 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 92.6%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1048
- WSH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 125.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1674 | 1302 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −53 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +439 Elo | BOS 92.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 93.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 93.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.2 | Points scored | 107.526th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 123.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.0 | Margin | −15.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 102.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 118.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.1 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–2 | Road vs home | 2–929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 8–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–0 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.