Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints43
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jayson TatumRebounds15
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints19
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–98
- Q419.0Jevon Carter makes 6-foot two point shot (Matas Buzelis assists)123–98
- Q423.1Jevon Carter offensive rebound123–96
- Q425.0Dalen Terry misses driving layup123–96
- Q433.1Julian Phillips offensive rebound123–96
- Q435.1Talen Horton-Tucker misses layup123–96
- Q442.1Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound123–96
- Q444.1Luke Kornet misses layup123–96
- Q41:04Jevon Carter makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Julian Phillips assists)123–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:59Coby White makes 26-foot three pointer (Matas Buzelis assists)BOS 22 – 25 CHI · CHI 19% → 25% +5CHI 19% → 25%+5 pts
- Q11:49Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 25 – 25 CHI · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q211:04Kristaps Porzingis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 31 – 31 CHI · BOS 74% → 80% +6BOS 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q310:17Coby White makes 25-foot three point shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)BOS 63 – 59 CHI · CHI 12% → 17% +5CHI 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q39:56Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 66 – 59 CHI · BOS 83% → 88% +5BOS 83% → 88%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -12.5
- ML BOS -675 / CHI +475
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.9%, market 83.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -501
- CHI +501 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 126.0 – 113.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1654 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −5 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +171 Elo | BOS 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 83.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 118.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 121.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.4 | Margin | −2.619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 112.210th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–2 | Road vs home | 4–926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–17 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.