Miami Heat at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists5
- Kel'el WareRebounds7
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints35
- Cole AnthonyAssists9
- Goga BitadzeRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q40.0Heat offensive team rebound114–121
- Q40.0Jonathan Isaac blocks Bam Adebayo 's 33-foot three point pullup jump shot114–121
- Q43.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q43.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q43.1Duncan Robinson personal foul114–119
- Q45.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound114–119
- Q47.2Trevelin Queen blocks Tyler Herro 's 4-foot driving layup114–119
- Q413.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:04Cory Joseph makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)MIA 109 – 104 ORL · ORL 11% → 22% +12ORL 11% → 22%+12 pts
- Q43:17Cole Anthony makes 13-foot step back jumpshotMIA 109 – 108 ORL · ORL 28% → 43% +15ORL 28% → 43%+15 pts
- Q42:43Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 19-foot jumper (Cole Anthony assists)MIA 109 – 110 ORL · ORL 42% → 60% +17ORL 42% → 60%+17 pts
- Q41:35Goga Bitadze makes driving layupMIA 110 – 112 ORL · ORL 51% → 72% +22ORL 51% → 72%+22 pts
- Q41:09Cole Anthony makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 110 – 114 ORL · ORL 75% → 91% +16ORL 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML MIA +110 / ORL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 59.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 102.5 – 104.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 206.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −30 | −45 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −44 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +69 Elo | ORL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 106.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–7 | Road vs home | 10–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−30 Elo- Jimmy Butler III not with team−44 Elo
Magic
−45 Elo- Jalen Suggs right ankle sprain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–14 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 13–5 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.