Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints19
- Ben SimmonsAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Tyler HerroRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–110
- Q411.1Keshad Johnson defensive rebound95–110
- Q415.0Jaylen Martin misses two point shot95–110
- Q418.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound95–110
- Q422.1Josh Christopher misses 26-foot three point jumper95–110
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 195–110
- Q441.1Keshad Johnson shooting foul94–110
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes two point shot94–110
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson offensive rebound92–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q256.1Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 57 – 58 MIA · BKN 20% → 26% +7BKN 20% → 26%+7 pts
- Q310:45Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot three point jumperBKN 57 – 61 MIA · MIA 73% → 80% +7MIA 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q36:25Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 64 – 67 MIA · BKN 16% → 23% +7BKN 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q31:31Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)BKN 72 – 80 MIA · MIA 82% → 88% +7MIA 82% → 88%+7 pts
- Q31.1Tyrese Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)BKN 78 – 83 MIA · BKN 11% → 18% +7BKN 11% → 18%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -9.5
- ML BKN +340 / MIA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 68.4%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -360
- BKN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 100.5 – 110.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −25 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −45 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +134 Elo | MIA 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.2 | Points scored | 112.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 109.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.0 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 112.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 8–514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−25 Elo- Jimmy Butler III stomach illness−45 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–11 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.