Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints21
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds11
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints18
- Ben SimmonsAssists10
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–94
- Q413.0Cameron Johnson makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Martin assists)105–94
- Q414.1Tyrese Martin offensive rebound105–92
- Q417.1Cameron Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper105–92
- Q423.0Shake Milton defensive rebound105–92
- Q426.2Lauri Markkanen misses 23-foot three point jumper105–92
- Q446.1Jordan Clarkson defensive rebound105–92
- Q450.0Jalen Wilson misses 23-foot three point jumper105–92
- Q41:03Lauri Markkanen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)105–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:36Johnny Juzang makes 24-foot three point shot (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 42 – 39 BKN · UTAH 48% → 56% +8UTAH 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q21:41Svi Mykhailiuk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 45 – 41 BKN · UTAH 50% → 59% +8UTAH 50% → 59%+8 pts
- Q310:22Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 53 – 47 BKN · UTAH 57% → 66% +9UTAH 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q39:05Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)UTAH 56 – 50 BKN · UTAH 57% → 66% +9UTAH 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q34:03Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 67 – 59 BKN · UTAH 66% → 75% +9UTAH 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML UTAH +105 / BKN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- BKN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- BKN: Elo 56.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −46 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Reece Beekman −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +45 Elo | BKN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.4 | Points scored | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 114.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 110.914th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 115.727th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 5–721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−46 Elo- Reece Beekman left knee sprain−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 17–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.