Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints30
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds14
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–119
- Q42.0John Collins defensive rebound126–119
- Q44.0Malik Beasley misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot126–119
- Q49.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2126–119
- Q49.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Ausar Thompson125–119
- Q49.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2125–119
- Q49.1Ausar Thompson personal foul124–119
- Q411.1Collin Sexton bad pass124–119
- Q411.1Jazz Full timeout124–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:51Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 101 – 92 DET · UTAH 71% → 81% +11UTAH 71% → 81%+11 pts
- Q47:53Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 106 – 96 DET · UTAH 78% → 88% +10UTAH 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q47:37Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)UTAH 106 – 99 DET · DET 12% → 21% +10DET 12% → 21%+10 pts
- Q47:17Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 109 – 99 DET · UTAH 79% → 89% +10UTAH 79% → 89%+10 pts
- Q41:45Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)UTAH 114 – 109 DET · DET 2% → 10% +8DET 2% → 10%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML UTAH +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- DET: Elo 69.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- UTAH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 116.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +23 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | UTAH crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +145 Elo | DET 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Points scored | 110.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 113.818th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.6 | Margin | −3.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 108.922nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 112.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–15 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 9–15 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.