Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints37
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–141
- Q410.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound133–141
- Q414.0Patrick Williams misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot133–141
- Q417.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2133–141
- Q417.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2133–140
- Q417.1Jevon Carter personal take foul133–139
- Q419.0Zach LaVine makes driving layup (Nikola Vucevic assists)133–139
- Q429.1Bulls Full timeout131–139
- Q429.1De'Andre Hunter makes free throw 2 of 2131–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:35De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)CHI 126 – 123 ATL · ATL 15% → 32% +17ATL 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q43:03Trae Young makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotCHI 126 – 126 ATL · ATL 30% → 54% +24ATL 30% → 54%+24 pts
- Q42:44Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot dunk (Clint Capela assists)CHI 126 – 128 ATL · ATL 54% → 70% +16ATL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q41:47Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)CHI 129 – 130 ATL · CHI 12% → 37% +24CHI 12% → 37%+24 pts
- Q41:36Clint Capela makes alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Johnson assists)CHI 129 – 132 ATL · ATL 64% → 82% +18ATL 64% → 82%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML CHI +170 / ATL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -181
- CHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 118.5 – 123.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −6 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +92 Elo | ATL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 119.027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.0 | Margin | −2.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 109.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 8–718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–15 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–1 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.