Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Khris MiddletonPoints21
- Bobby PortisAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds13
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints17
- Ayo DosunmuAssists11
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–91
- Q420.1Tyler Smith defensive rebound112–91
- Q423.1Jevon Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper112–91
- Q440.0Delon Wright out of bounds bad pass turnover112–91
- Q454.0Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Duarte assists)112–91
- Q41:01Chris Duarte defensive rebound112–88
- Q41:04Stanley Umude misses 23-foot three point jumper112–88
- Q41:23Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2112–88
- Q41:23Bulls offensive team rebound112–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:37Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIL 8 – 11 CHI · CHI 55% → 62% +6CHI 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q16:56Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 13 – 11 CHI · MIL 42% → 49% +7MIL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q14:45Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 20 – 11 CHI · MIL 58% → 65% +6MIL 58% → 65%+6 pts
- Q13:59Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 23 – 13 CHI · MIL 61% → 67% +6MIL 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q34:56Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)MIL 76 – 66 CHI · CHI 15% → 21% +7CHI 15% → 21%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML MIL +115 / CHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.3%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- CHI -125
- MIL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.5 – 114.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −126 | −19 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +72 Elo | CHI 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 121.429th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −3.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–8 | Road vs home | 4–1027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−126 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–16 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.