Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- AJ GreenAssists4
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints27
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–124
- Q47.1shot clock turnover101–124
- Q431.1Ryan Rollins makes 15-foot pullup jump shot101–124
- Q442.1Ty Jerome makes two point shot99–124
- Q443.1Ty Jerome offensive rebound99–122
- Q444.0Tristan Thompson misses dunk99–122
- Q446.0Tristan Thompson offensive rebound99–122
- Q448.0Ty Jerome misses running pullup jump shot99–122
- Q451.1MarJon Beauchamp lost ball turnover (Ty Jerome steals)99–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:59Brook Lopez makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 3 – 2 CLE · MIL 21% → 26% +5MIL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q19:30Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIL 3 – 5 CLE · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q11:32Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 15 – 21 CLE · MIL 13% → 17% +4MIL 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q11:06Pat Connaughton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 18 – 21 CLE · MIL 17% → 22% +5MIL 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q151.2Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIL 18 – 24 CLE · CLE 78% → 83% +5CLE 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML MIL +290 / CLE -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.1%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -309
- MIL +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 106.0 – 114.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +19 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +101 Elo | CLE 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 121.52nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 110.911th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +10.62nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 109.29th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–7 | Road vs home | 14–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 19–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 16–8 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–4 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.