Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists5
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds12
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints34
- Bobby PortisAssists8
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q41.0shot clock turnover101–112
- Q425.0Kyshawn George makes dunk101–112
- Q425.1Kyshawn George offensive rebound99–112
- Q426.0Kyshawn George misses driving dunk99–112
- Q435.1Ryan Rollins makes 1-foot driving dunk99–112
- Q454.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 299–110
- Q454.1Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 298–110
- Q454.1Taurean Prince shooting foul97–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:50Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three pointerWSH 31 – 28 MIL · WSH 27% → 33% +6WSH 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q11:20Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)WSH 34 – 30 MIL · WSH 29% → 35% +6WSH 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q11:05AJ Green makes 28-foot three pointer (Bobby Portis assists)WSH 34 – 33 MIL · MIL 64% → 71% +6MIL 64% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17.1Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)WSH 36 – 36 MIL · MIL 66% → 73% +6MIL 66% → 73%+6 pts
- Q210:44AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)WSH 39 – 41 MIL · MIL 70% → 76% +6MIL 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML WSH +290 / MIL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5
- MIL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.6%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -309
- WSH +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.0 – 113.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −53 | −142 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +135 Elo | MIL 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 112.216th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 111.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.8 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 111.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 110.812th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.4 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 9–48th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−142 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.