Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints27
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q46.0Alexandre Sarr defensive rebound114–123
- Q48.1Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot114–123
- Q414.0Malcolm Brogdon makes free throw 2 of 2114–123
- Q414.0Malcolm Brogdon makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
- Q414.0LaMelo Ball personal foul114–121
- Q426.1Cody Martin bad pass (Bilal Coulibaly steals)114–121
- Q428.0Josh Green enters the game for Moussa Diabate114–121
- Q428.0Hornets Full timeout114–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q328.1Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)CHA 86 – 85 WSH · WSH 30% → 41% +11WSH 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q410:09Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)CHA 86 – 92 WSH · WSH 59% → 72% +12WSH 59% → 72%+12 pts
- Q46:34Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alexandre Sarr assists)CHA 94 – 98 WSH · WSH 52% → 68% +16WSH 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q45:58Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three pointer (Alexandre Sarr assists)CHA 94 – 101 WSH · WSH 69% → 83% +14WSH 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q43:28Alexandre Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)CHA 102 – 110 WSH · WSH 82% → 93% +11WSH 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -3.5
- ML CHA -165 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3.5
- CHA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- CHA: Elo 64.4%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- CHA -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 111.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1355 | 1301 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | −59 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +103 Elo | CHA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 107.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.1 | Margin | −15.830th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 102.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 117.629th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.2 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 2–1029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–12 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.