Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints40
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds15
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Miles BridgesRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–108
- Q420.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2121–108
- Q420.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2120–108
- Q420.1Tidjane Salaun personal foul119–108
- Q423.2Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound119–108
- Q425.1Paul George blocks Tidjane Salaun 's 28-foot three point step back jumpshot119–108
- Q434.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2119–108
- Q434.0Tidjane Salaun enters the game for LaMelo Ball118–108
- Q434.0Isaiah Wong enters the game for Miles Bridges118–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:58Brandon Miller makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)PHI 67 – 62 CHA · CHA 23% → 31% +8CHA 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q49:28Josh Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)PHI 95 – 89 CHA · CHA 13% → 22% +9CHA 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q47:55Isaiah Wong makes 5-foot two point shot (Miles Bridges assists)PHI 97 – 93 CHA · CHA 21% → 29% +8CHA 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q46:51Miles Bridges makes tip shotPHI 99 – 95 CHA · CHA 19% → 27% +8CHA 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q45:40Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 103 – 95 CHA · PHI 79% → 90% +11PHI 79% → 90%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -135 / CHA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- CHA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.0 – 108.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +15 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +19 Elo | PHI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 106.628th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −5.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 106.726th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–14 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–0 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.