Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game149–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter149–135
- Q414.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound149–135
- Q417.2Hunter Tyson misses 17-foot two point shot149–135
- Q426.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound149–135
- Q433.1Ty Jerome misses 26-foot three point jumper149–135
- Q444.1Hunter Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)149–135
- Q41:00Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)149–132
- Q41:04Julian Strawther lost ball turnover (Ty Jerome steals)146–132
- Q41:10Hunter Tyson defensive rebound146–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:26Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 34 – 36 DEN · CLE 45% → 52% +7CLE 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q138.1Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 37 – 36 DEN · CLE 51% → 59% +7CLE 51% → 59%+7 pts
- Q111.1Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 40 – 36 DEN · CLE 59% → 65% +7CLE 59% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:21Sam Merrill makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 55 – 53 DEN · CLE 53% → 61% +8CLE 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q26:07Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 59 – 53 DEN · CLE 63% → 70% +7CLE 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -145 / DEN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -133
- DEN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 120.0 – 116.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +9 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +27 Elo | CLE 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.8 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.6 | Margin | +3.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 114.66th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–9 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–10 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.