Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- DeAndre JordanRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints28
- Anfernee SimonsAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–126
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons makes driving layup124–126
- Q416.1Anfernee Simons enters the game for Toumani Camara124–124
- Q416.1Trail Blazers Full timeout124–124
- Q416.1Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Jamal Murray assists)124–124
- Q424.1Deni Avdija enters the game for Anfernee Simons122–124
- Q424.1Nuggets Full timeout122–124
- Q424.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:24Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 120 – 120 POR · DEN 21% → 55% +33DEN 21% → 55%+33 pts
- Q459.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 122 – 120 POR · DEN 54% → 79% +26DEN 54% → 79%+26 pts
- Q424.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 122 – 123 POR · POR 48% → 69% +22POR 48% → 69%+22 pts
- Q416.1Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 124 – 124 POR · DEN 9% → 52% +43DEN 9% → 52%+43 pts
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons makes driving layupDEN 124 – 126 POR · POR 41% → 100% +59POR 41% → 100%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -360 / POR +280
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.8%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -297
- POR +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.5 – 113.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −7 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Dalano Banton −4 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +218 Elo | DEN 77.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 106.927th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −9.227th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 105.528th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.625th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 5–721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−7 Elo- Dalano Banton left hip discomfort−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–14 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.