Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Malik MonkAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–129
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound130–129
- Q41.2DeMar DeRozan misses 5-foot two point shot130–129
- Q48.1Peyton Watson enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.130–129
- Q48.1Doug McDermott enters the game for Keon Ellis130–129
- Q48.1Kings Full timeout130–129
- Q48.1Jamal Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)130–129
- Q420.1Keon Ellis enters the game for Doug McDermott128–129
- Q420.1Nuggets Full timeout128–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q452.0Jamal Murray makes 8-foot pullup jump shotDEN 125 – 124 SAC · DEN 35% → 65% +30DEN 35% → 65%+30 pts
- Q440.1De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)DEN 125 – 127 SAC · SAC 33% → 81% +48SAC 33% → 81%+48 pts
- Q430.1Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 128 – 127 SAC · DEN 15% → 69% +54DEN 15% → 69%+54 pts
- Q420.1DeMar DeRozan makes 4-foot driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 128 – 129 SAC · SAC 27% → 73% +47SAC 27% → 73%+47 pts
- Q48.1Jamal Murray makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 130 – 129 SAC · DEN 16% → 84% +67DEN 16% → 84%+67 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML DEN -105 / SAC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 49.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.0 – 119.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +48 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +2 Elo | DEN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 116.28th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 113.016th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +3.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 114.18th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 111.012th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–14 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.