Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints20
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–116
- Q41.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound109–116
- Q41.0Jerami Grant misses 29-foot three point jumper109–116
- Q46.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Tyus Jones109–116
- Q46.1Trail Blazers Full timeout109–116
- Q46.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2109–116
- Q46.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2109–115
- Q46.1Deni Avdija personal foul109–114
- Q47.0Suns Full timeout109–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:09Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)POR 65 – 64 PHX · PHX 60% → 69% +9PHX 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q35:02Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)POR 67 – 67 PHX · PHX 62% → 71% +10PHX 62% → 71%+10 pts
- Q34:02Tyus Jones makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 71 – 70 PHX · PHX 57% → 68% +10PHX 57% → 68%+10 pts
- Q33:44Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)POR 71 – 73 PHX · PHX 67% → 77% +9PHX 67% → 77%+9 pts
- Q410:21Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 82 – 85 PHX · POR 13% → 22% +9POR 13% → 22%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -11.5
- ML POR +450 / PHX -700
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8.5
- PHX 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 79.6%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -481
- POR +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.5 – 121.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | −10 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +236 Elo | PHX 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 81.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 113.912th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 114.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.3 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 114.17th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−21 Elo- Deandre Ayton illness−11 Elo
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–12 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.