Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists3
- Andre DrummondRebounds8
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–126
- Q414.1Ricky Council IV makes dunk99–126
- Q414.1Ricky Council IV offensive rebound97–126
- Q418.0KJ Martin misses 24-foot three point jumper97–126
- Q427.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound97–126
- Q430.1Ty Jerome misses 33-foot three point jumper97–126
- Q437.0Craig Porter Jr. offensive rebound97–126
- Q439.0Craig Porter Jr. misses driving floating jump shot97–126
- Q448.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound97–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:29Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 15 – 5 CLE · PHI 38% → 44% +6PHI 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q15:42Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 17 – 10 CLE · CLE 55% → 62% +7CLE 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q14:03Tyrese Maxey makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 25 – 14 CLE · PHI 41% → 48% +7PHI 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q13:51Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)PHI 25 – 17 CLE · CLE 52% → 59% +7CLE 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q12:23Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 27 – 22 CLE · CLE 58% → 65% +7CLE 58% → 65%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML PHI +320 / CLE -415
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 81.9%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -338
- PHI +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | +50 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +263 Elo | CLE 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 82.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 121.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 110.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.0 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 119.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 108.89th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 15–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 20–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 17–8 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.