Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Vasilije MicicPoints20
- Tidjane SalaunAssists5
- Tidjane SalaunRebounds8
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Joel EmbiidAssists9
- Paul GeorgeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–108
- Q422.176ers defensive team rebound98–108
- Q423.1Paul George blocks Miles Bridges 's 25-foot three point jumper98–108
- Q427.1Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound98–108
- Q431.0Tidjane Salaun misses 24-foot three point shot98–108
- Q432.1Nick Richards enters the game for DaQuan Jeffries98–108
- Q432.1Cody Martin enters the game for Moussa Diabate98–108
- Q432.1Hornets Full timeout98–108
- Q432.1Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound98–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:54DaQuan Jeffries makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 83 – 89 PHI · CHA 6% → 12% +6CHA 6% → 12%+6 pts
- Q46:56Moussa Diabate makes driving layup (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 85 – 89 PHI · CHA 11% → 18% +6CHA 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q46:41Joel Embiid makes 19-foot jumper (Paul George assists)CHA 85 – 91 PHI · PHI 82% → 89% +6PHI 82% → 89%+6 pts
- Q46:22Miles Bridges makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCHA 87 – 91 PHI · CHA 11% → 17% +6CHA 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q46:12Joel Embiid makes 2-foot two point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)CHA 87 – 93 PHI · PHI 83% → 89% +6PHI 83% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -13.5
- ML CHA +500 / PHI -800
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -10.5
- PHI 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 84.2%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -533
- CHA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 99.5 – 113.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | +69 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +291 Elo | PHI 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 86.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 86.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 105.929th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 110.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −4.523rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 106.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 111.013th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 3–928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–13 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–7 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.