Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints27
- Jordan ClarksonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds16
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–124
- Q411.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound113–124
- Q413.2Johnny Juzang misses 27-foot three point jumper113–124
- Q426.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 2113–124
- Q426.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 1 of 2113–123
- Q426.1Lauri Markkanen personal foul113–122
- Q433.0(00:33.2) [Jazz] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Jazz] charged with a timeout113–122
- Q433.0Jazz Full timeout113–122
- Q433.0Collin Sexton turnover113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:58Johnny Juzang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 104 – 109 CLE · UTAH 6% → 12% +7UTAH 6% → 12%+7 pts
- Q44:23Donovan Mitchell makes 15-foot two point shotUTAH 108 – 111 CLE · CLE 70% → 81% +11CLE 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q43:11Darius Garland makes 8-foot two point shotUTAH 108 – 113 CLE · CLE 82% → 91% +9CLE 82% → 91%+9 pts
- Q42:26Donovan Mitchell makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotUTAH 110 – 115 CLE · CLE 83% → 92% +9CLE 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q41:49Collin Sexton makes driving layup (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 113 – 116 CLE · UTAH 6% → 15% +9UTAH 6% → 15%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -14.5
- ML UTAH +700 / CLE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 85.2%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -738
- UTAH +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.0 – 123.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +39 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +304 Elo | CLE 85.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 86.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 86.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.2 | Points scored | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 110.19th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +11.61st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 108.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–10 | Road vs home | 16–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 21–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 18–8 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.