Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Pelicans- Jordan HawkinsPoints25
- Dejounte MurrayAssists15
- Yves MissiRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–129
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–129
- OT1.1Nuggets defensive team rebound132–129
- OT1.1Yves Missi misses free throw 3 of 3132–129
- OT1.1Daniel Theis enters the game for Herbert Jones132–129
- OT1.1Pelicans offensive team rebound132–129
- OT1.1Yves Missi misses free throw 2 of 3132–129
- OT1.1Russell Westbrook lane violation132–129
- OT1.1Pelicans offensive team rebound132–129
- OT1.1Yves Missi misses free throw 1 of 3132–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q453.0CJ McCollum makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)DEN 117 – 119 NO · NO 32% → 75% +43NO 32% → 75%+43 pts
- Q49.1Jamal Murray makes 20-foot step back jumpshotDEN 119 – 119 NO · DEN 3% → 51% +48DEN 3% → 51%+48 pts
- OT3:05Yves Missi makes dunkDEN 123 – 125 NO · NO 43% → 60% +16NO 43% → 60%+16 pts
- OT2:44Nikola Jokic makes layup (Christian Braun assists)DEN 125 – 125 NO · DEN 39% → 56% +17DEN 39% → 56%+17 pts
- OT2:08Aaron Gordon makes alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 127 – 125 NO · DEN 55% → 74% +18DEN 55% → 74%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML DEN -340 / NO +270
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 81.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- NO +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 120.5 – 112.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | −75 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +256 Elo | DEN 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 104.930th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 116.725th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −11.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 104.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 4–1027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−75 Elo- Jose Alvarado left hamstring strain−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–15 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.