Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints23
- Royce O'NealeAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Jalen PickettAssists8
- Christian BraunRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–117
- Q416.0Spencer Jones defensive rebound90–117
- Q419.1PJ Hall blocks Josh Okogie 's 7-foot two point shot90–117
- Q432.0Jalen Bridges defensive rebound90–117
- Q434.1Jalen Pickett misses 27-foot three point jumper90–117
- Q451.1PJ Hall defensive rebound90–117
- Q453.1Oso Ighodaro misses free throw 2 of 290–117
- Q453.1Oso Ighodaro makes free throw 1 of 290–117
- Q453.1Zeke Nnaji shooting foul89–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:45Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 29 – 29 DEN · PHX 31% → 38% +7PHX 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q27:52Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 29 – 34 DEN · DEN 66% → 73% +7DEN 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:23Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerPHX 43 – 43 DEN · PHX 31% → 39% +8PHX 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q22:08Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)PHX 43 – 46 DEN · DEN 61% → 69% +8DEN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q21:30Monte Morris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 46 – 48 DEN · PHX 27% → 34% +7PHX 27% → 34%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML PHX +170 / DEN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -180
- PHX +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.0 – 118.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | −5 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +101 Elo | DEN 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 117.326th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 114.55th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 112.118th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–18 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.