Detroit Pistons at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints43
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Mason PlumleeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–125
- Q46.0Malik Beasley defensive rebound133–125
- Q410.1Bradley Beal misses driving layup133–125
- Q416.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2133–125
- Q416.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2132–125
- Q416.1Ryan Dunn personal take foul131–125
- Q416.2Ryan Dunn makes driving dunk (Bradley Beal assists)131–125
- Q423.0Royce O'Neale defensive rebound131–123
- Q424.0Malik Beasley misses free throw 2 of 2131–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:46Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DET 92 – 84 PHX · DET 58% → 68% +10DET 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q33:31Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)DET 92 – 87 PHX · PHX 32% → 42% +10PHX 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q46:20Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)DET 113 – 108 PHX · PHX 16% → 29% +13PHX 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q43:29Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)DET 120 – 115 PHX · PHX 8% → 20% +12PHX 8% → 20%+12 pts
- Q42:11Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 125 – 119 PHX · DET 74% → 91% +18DET 74% → 91%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML DET +195 / PHX -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.7%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -208
- DET +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.0 – 115.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −49 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +98 Elo | PHX 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 113.811th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 114.421st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.3 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 114.07th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–14 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–2 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.