Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds18
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints37
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–111
- Q415.0T.J. McConnell defensive rebound120–111
- Q418.0Bennedict Mathurin blocks Grayson Allen 's 3-foot driving layup120–111
- Q426.1T.J. McConnell makes free throw 2 of 2120–111
- Q426.1T.J. McConnell makes free throw 1 of 2119–111
- Q426.1Royce O'Neale personal take foul118–111
- Q430.1Kevin Durant makes 2-foot driving dunk (Royce O'Neale assists)118–111
- Q437.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Myles Turner118–109
- Q437.1Suns Full timeout118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:34Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 68 – 61 PHX · IND 50% → 59% +9IND 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q310:22Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)IND 68 – 64 PHX · PHX 41% → 50% +9PHX 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q39:48Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 71 – 64 PHX · IND 50% → 59% +9IND 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q38:13Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 74 – 69 PHX · IND 45% → 54% +10IND 45% → 54%+10 pts
- Q36:02Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 83 – 75 PHX · IND 56% → 66% +10IND 56% → 66%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML IND +195 / PHX -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 68.6%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -208
- IND +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.0 – 121.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −4 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +136 Elo | PHX 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 114.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 114.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 114.524th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 9–48th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–17 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.