Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints27
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–110
- Q42.1shot clock turnover100–110
- Q428.0Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three pointer100–110
- Q435.0Nikola Jokic defensive rebound97–110
- Q438.0Kevin Durant misses 6-foot pullup jump shot97–110
- Q458.0Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound97–110
- Q41:01Michael Porter Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper97–110
- Q41:09Jamal Murray defensive rebound97–110
- Q41:13Jusuf Nurkic misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot97–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:03Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 61 – 60 PHX · DEN 48% → 57% +9DEN 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:40Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 64 – 62 PHX · DEN 51% → 60% +9DEN 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q39:53Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)DEN 64 – 67 PHX · PHX 46% → 56% +9PHX 46% → 56%+9 pts
- Q38:41Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)DEN 68 – 70 PHX · PHX 43% → 53% +9PHX 43% → 53%+9 pts
- Q410:47Julian Strawther makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 81 – 88 PHX · DEN 15% → 24% +9DEN 15% → 24%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -135 / PHX +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 68.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -124
- PHX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −59 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +133 Elo | DEN 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Points scored | 113.412th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 115.121st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −1.818th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 113.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 115.527th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.0 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 9–616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–16 | 9–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–2 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.