Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds22
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints24
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–121
- Q47.1Peyton Watson defensive rebound132–121
- Q410.0Lauri Markkanen misses 29-foot three point jumper132–121
- Q415.2Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2132–121
- Q415.2Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2131–121
- Q415.2Collin Sexton shooting foul130–121
- Q419.0Jordan Clarkson lost ball turnover (Nikola Jokic steals)130–121
- Q425.1Peyton Watson makes two point shot130–121
- Q448.1Collin Sexton makes 6-foot two point shot (Jordan Clarkson assists)128–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:36Lauri Markkanen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)DEN 64 – 69 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 49% +9UTAH 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q311:15Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 67 – 69 UTAH · DEN 51% → 60% +9DEN 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q37:25Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 76 – 73 UTAH · DEN 64% → 73% +9DEN 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q48:59Cody Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)DEN 105 – 102 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 27% +11UTAH 17% → 27%+11 pts
- Q47:16Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 112 – 107 UTAH · DEN 69% → 81% +13DEN 69% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML DEN -300 / UTAH +240
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 75.7%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- DEN -255
- UTAH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 115.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −42 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +197 Elo | DEN 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 110.621st of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 109.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 117.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 11th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 2–1130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–18 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | — |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–11 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–1 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.